As we move into the back half of 2024, worries about a new COVID-19 variant, XEC, are flooding the world. The first case was reported in Berlin, Germany, in June of 2024, but it has since been spreading in 27 countries, including the United States. This was worrisome enough because it is believed to spread more quickly and avoid immune defenses, so will it spike into significant case numbers this fall? Let’s dig deep into the important information related to this XEC variant and what we can expect for the months ahead.
What is the COVID XEC Variant?
The XEC variant is a hybrid of two earlier COVID variants, KS.1.1 and KP.3.3. Consistent with the pattern of its predecessors, XEC has demonstrated a “fitness advantage” over other strains currently circulating. Though not currently dominant on a global scale, this one’s rapid spread suggests can rapidly supplant the other strains currently circulating.
Why Is the XEC Variant Concerning?
The XEC variant is spreading faster than previous strains, but it’s not entirely clear why. Possible reasons include:
- Higher Viral Load: People infected with the XEC variant may shed more virus, making it easier to transmit.
- Increased Cell Entry Efficiency: The virus may be more adept at entering human cells.
- Immune Evasion: XEC might be better at evading immune defenses, even in individuals who have been vaccinated or previously infected.
While researchers are still gathering data, it’s clear that XEC has the potential to fuel a surge in cases.
Will the XEC Variant Cause a Fall 2024 Surge?
Traditional trends show an increase in cases of COVID-19 in the colder months. Similarly, this could happen in 2024. Researchers are sounding warnings of a spike as the weather is bound to get cold, with most predicting it to come in November due to people staying indoors, increasing the chances of the virus spreading.
Currently, data does not indicate that XEC will be more severe than earlier circulating variants; however, the threat of this variant increasing in incidence with swift spread and evading immune responses is cause enough to be concerned. Without widespread testing and surveillance, it will be hard to track the impact that this variant has with any accuracy.
How Does XEC Compare to Previous Variants?
The XEC variant is very similar to previous strains except that, predominantly, it transmits more than others. Most probably, the difference is due to mutations providing a selective advantage to the virus, which may endow the virus with characteristics for transmissibility higher than those of other variants circulating in parallel, such as KP.3.1.1 and KP.3.
It is still not known whether XEC presents a more serious disease. Researchers are currently exploring whether it accelerates the rate of hospitalisation and if it leads to more serious cases of long COVID.
How Prepared is the U.S. for the XEC Variant?
The United States still lacks a functional, all-encompassing surveillance system for COVID-19. Testing has declined from its 2020 activity, and many cases are now unrepresented, meaning the actual spread of the virus continues to be underestimated. It is becoming increasingly dependable to now track trends about how the COVID-19 virus is spreading, but overall widespread testing and reporting are much more impactful.
Without good data, it’s hard to predict exactly when or how bad the XEC variant will be in different parts of the country,” the public health officials added. However, “the public is still encouraged to be vigilant as we enter the colder months.”.
Can Vaccines Protect Against the XEC Variant?
The COVID-19 vaccines are updated for 2024, which will incorporate some degree of protection against the XEC variant. However, the magnitude of that protection is still to be studied. Vaccination is not a guarantee of immunity; however, it reduces the chance of getting really ill, becoming hospitalized, and actually dying.
However, since the variant may also evade immune response, even the vaccinated or the previously-recovered individuals due to the immunity they hold may still become infected. Therefore, there are additional measures recommended, which include the use of masks, staying indoors, and minimizing activities within crowded enclosures, especially during possible surges.
What Precautions Should You Take Against the XEC Variant?
To reduce your risk of contracting the XEC variant, consider the following preventive measures:
- Get Vaccinated: Ensure you’re up to date with the latest COVID-19 vaccines.
- Wear a Mask in Crowded Spaces: N95 respirators are proven to reduce transmission.
- Practice Good Hygiene: Wash your hands regularly and use hand sanitizer.
- Avoid Crowded Indoor Settings: Especially during periods of high transmission.
- Stay Informed: Follow local health guidelines and stay updated on the latest news about COVID-19 and the XEC variant.
Potential Long COVID Impact from XEC
There is always a risk of Long COVID whenever a new variant of COVID-19 emerges, and that has happened with the XEC strain. Patients infected with previous versions of COVID-19 have developed long-term diseases such as fatigue and brain flog among other respiratory issues. It is unknown whether the XEC variant will increase the risk of long COVID, but the brisk pace at which the variant has spread demands consideration of the long-term impacts too.
How Does XEC Impact Public Health Measures?
The need for tighter public health measures is better served by XEC’s rise. In a way, people have become too complacent with laxity in taking precautions against the spread of COVID-19 to prevent contagion. The rise of this new variant that might be more transmissible only serves to remind them that the pandemic is not quite done.
Public health officials may need to re-implement some of these measures, such as mask mandates or recommendations about telecommuting, if hospitalizations rise due to XEC. This flexibility will be important to ensure one doesn’t overwhelm health care systems.
FAQs About the XEC Variant and Fall 2024 COVID Surge
Ques: What is the COVID XEC variant?
Ans: The XEC variant is a new strain of COVID-19, first detected in Berlin, Germany, in June 2024, and is spreading globally.
Ques: Why is the XEC variant spreading so quickly?
Ans: XEC appears to have a fitness advantage, meaning it spreads faster than other variants, possibly due to increased transmissibility or immune evasion.
Ques: Will the XEC variant cause a fall surge?
Ans: It’s possible. Historically, COVID surges occur in colder months when more people are indoors, increasing the likelihood of transmission.
Ques: Are vaccines effective against the XEC variant?
Ans: Updated vaccines should offer some protection, but it’s still unclear how effective they are specifically against XEC.
Ques: What precautions should I take against the XEC variant?
Ans: Get vaccinated, wear a mask in crowded spaces, practice good hygiene, and avoid crowded indoor settings.
Ques: Does XEC cause a more severe illness?
Ans: It’s still unclear whether XEC leads to more severe symptoms, but ongoing research is being conducted.
Ques: Is long COVID a risk with the XEC variant?
Ans: Long COVID could be a potential outcome of XEC infection, as with other variants, though more research is needed.
Ques: How can I track the spread of the XEC variant?
Ans: Wastewater surveillance and updates from public health authorities can help track the variant’s spread.
Ques: Will public health measures change due to XEC?
Ans: If XEC causes a surge in cases, mask mandates and other preventive measures may be reinstated in certain areas.
Ques: How does XEC compare to other COVID variants?
Ans: XEC spreads faster and may evade immune defenses more effectively, but its severity compared to other variants is still being studied.
Thus, one more complexity is folded into the already evolving pandemic with the emergence of the new XEC variant. As we enter Fall 2024, vigilance and preventive measures become very important indeed, especially as vaccines do have a degree of protection, but more importantly, variants like XEC are evading immune defenses and causing appreciable public health challenges.